The Growing Acceptance of Real Estate Value Inaccuracy

Many homeowners want to know their home value even when not considering a sale Austin Homes for Sale Round Rock Homes for Sale Lakeway Homes for Sale Lake Travis Homes for Sale West Lake Hills Homes for Sale Leander Homes for Sale Cedar Park Homes for Sale Pflugerville Homes for Sale Lake Austin Homes for Sale Georgetown Homes for Sale Bee Cave Homes for Sale Dripping Springs Homes for Sale. Such as when protesting assessed property value at Travis County. Or maybe you are just curious, or you want to update your Net Worth spreadsheet with a current value Austin Homes for Sale Round Rock Homes for Sale Lakeway Homes for Sale Lake Travis Homes for Sale West Lake Hills Homes for Sale Leander Homes for Sale Cedar Park Homes for Sale Pflugerville Homes for Sale Lake Austin Homes for Sale Georgetown Homes for Sale Bee Cave Homes for Sale Dripping Springs Homes for Sale.

These are all factors that a Realtor would subjectively use to add or subtract value when doing a Comparative Market Analysis (CMA) Austin Homes for Sale Round Rock Homes for Sale Lakeway Homes for Sale Lake Travis Homes for Sale West Lake Hills Homes for Sale Leander Homes for Sale Cedar Park Homes for Sale Pflugerville Homes for Sale Lake Austin Homes for Sale Georgetown Homes for Sale Bee Cave Homes for Sale Dripping Springs Homes for Sale, and that a buyer would observe when establishing a level of interest in the home.

The exact same floorplan just sold for $475K Austin Homes for Sale Round Rock Homes for Sale Lakeway Homes for Sale Lake Travis Homes for Sale West Lake Hills Homes for Sale Leander Homes for Sale Cedar Park Homes for Sale Pflugerville Homes for Sale Lake Austin Homes for Sale Georgetown Homes for Sale Bee Cave Homes for Sale Dripping Springs Homes for Sale, but that home has a completely updated and remodelled kitchen and was “bid up” due to multiple offers. It oddly did not have an updated master bathroom though Austin Homes for Sale Round Rock Homes for Sale Lakeway Homes for Sale Lake Travis Homes for Sale West Lake Hills Homes for Sale Leander Homes for Sale Cedar Park Homes for Sale Pflugerville Homes for Sale Lake Austin Homes for Sale Georgetown Homes for Sale Bee Cave Homes for Sale Dripping Springs Homes for Sale. It would still be the “best comp” though. Austin Homes for Sale Round Rock Homes for Sale Lakeway Homes for Sale Lake Travis Homes for Sale West Lake Hills Homes for Sale Leander Homes for Sale Cedar Park Homes for Sale Pflugerville Homes for Sale Lake Austin Homes for Sale Georgetown Homes for Sale Bee Cave Homes for Sale Dripping Springs Homes for Sale

So, what should my home sell for? What’s it “worth”?

Let’s see what the automated valuation models say though. Here we go …

$502,091 Redfin
$499,533 Homes.com
$473,852 ePropertyWatch (CoreLogic Tool)
$461,000 USAA Home Value Monitoring
$411,000 HomeSnap
$407,038 Zillow
$406,638 TCAD (Travis County Appraisal District – not a true AVM but relevant nonetheless)
$405,181 Trulia Austin Homes for Sale Round Rock Homes for Sale Lakeway Homes for Sale Lake Travis Homes for Sale West Lake Hills Homes for Sale Leander Homes for Sale Cedar Park Homes for Sale Pflugerville Homes for Sale Lake Austin Homes for Sale Georgetown Homes for Sale Bee Cave Homes for Sale Dripping Springs Homes for Sale

So what is this home worth? Notice the $50K gap between the top 4 and the bottom 4? And the nearly $100K gap between the highest and lowest? These numbers are all over the map. Each source boasts of it’s accuracy as being the “best”. Oddly, if we add them up and divide by 8, it comes out to about $445K, which is pretty close.

I still say the home is worth about $450K and I think I’m right Austin Homes for Sale Round Rock Homes for Sale Lakeway Homes for Sale Lake Travis Homes for Sale West Lake Hills Homes for Sale Leander Homes for Sale Cedar Park Homes for Sale Pflugerville Homes for Sale Lake Austin Homes for Sale Georgetown Homes for Sale Bee Cave Homes for Sale Dripping Springs Homes for Sale. I think I’m smarter than the mathematical algorithms and I believe I know more.

Oddly, the “wrongest” is Redfin, which boldly proclaims to be the most accurate, at $502,091.

Homes.com is the next wrongest, at $499,533, and Trulia at $405,181, and Zillow at $407,038. The four most public and popular consumer real estate portals are the most inaccurate. How ’bout that? Do you trust these sites?

The closest, interestingly is USAA at $461K. USAA is my bank and insurance company. Nothing flashy or braggy about it. Austin Homes for Sale Round Rock Homes for Sale Lakeway Homes for Sale Lake Travis Homes for Sale West Lake Hills Homes for Sale Leander Homes for Sale Cedar Park Homes for Sale Pflugerville Homes for Sale Lake Austin Homes for Sale Georgetown Homes for Sale Bee Cave Homes for Sale Dripping Springs Homes for Sale Perhaps it benefits from knowing the age of the roof and other features because those data points are entered in by me as part of the insurance quote Austin Homes for Sale Round Rock Homes for Sale Lakeway Homes for Sale Lake Travis Homes for Sale West Lake Hills Homes for Sale Leander Homes for Sale Cedar Park Homes for Sale Pflugerville Homes for Sale Lake Austin Homes for Sale Georgetown Homes for Sale Bee Cave Homes for Sale Dripping Springs Homes for Sale. I’m sure it also sources data from other public records. Austin Homes for Sale Round Rock Homes for Sale Lakeway Homes for Sale Lake Travis Homes for Sale West Lake Hills Homes for Sale Leander Homes for Sale Cedar Park Homes for Sale Pflugerville Homes for Sale Lake Austin Homes for Sale Georgetown Homes for Sale Bee Cave Homes for Sale Dripping Springs Homes for Sale

The next closest is CoreLogic’s ePropertyWatch, which I doubt anyone has ever even heard of Austin Homes for Sale Round Rock Homes for Sale Lakeway Homes for Sale Lake Travis Homes for Sale West Lake Hills Homes for Sale Leander Homes for Sale Cedar Park Homes for Sale Pflugerville Homes for Sale Lake Austin Homes for Sale Georgetown Homes for Sale Bee Cave Homes for Sale Dripping Springs Homes for Sale. It gathers data from insurance companies, banks, as well as public records and MLS systems and many other sources (CoreLogic, which you’ve also probably never heard of, is the provider of Matrix, the most widely use MLS System by Realtor associations across the country)Austin Homes for Sale Round Rock Homes for Sale Lakeway Homes for Sale Lake Travis Homes for Sale West Lake Hills Homes for Sale Leander Homes for Sale Cedar Park Homes for Sale Pflugerville Homes for Sale Lake Austin Homes for Sale Georgetown Homes for Sale Bee Cave Homes for Sale Dripping Springs Homes for Sale.

The ePropertyWatch AVM would be closet if the home was updated and the mechanical components not nearing end of life Austin Homes for Sale Round Rock Homes for Sale Lakeway Homes for Sale Lake Travis Homes for Sale West Lake Hills Homes for Sale Leander Homes for Sale Cedar Park Homes for Sale Pflugerville Homes for Sale Lake Austin Homes for Sale Georgetown Homes for Sale Bee Cave Homes for Sale Dripping Springs Homes for Sale. Perhaps the next generation of these tools will allow users to key in such data to improve accuracy Austin Homes for Sale Round Rock Homes for Sale Lakeway Homes for Sale Lake Travis Homes for Sale West Lake Hills Homes for Sale Leander Homes for Sale Cedar Park Homes for Sale Pflugerville Homes for Sale Lake Austin Homes for Sale Georgetown Homes for Sale Bee Cave Homes for Sale Dripping Springs Homes for Sale.

The AVM Winner Is … USAA and CoreLogic
It’s interesting that the two “winners” in this small unscientific Austin Homes for Sale Round Rock Homes for Sale Lakeway Homes for Sale Lake Travis Homes for Sale West Lake Hills Homes for Sale Leander Homes for Sale Cedar Park Homes for Sale Pflugerville Homes for Sale Lake Austin Homes for Sale Georgetown Homes for Sale Bee Cave Homes for Sale Dripping Springs Homes for Sale test are not consumer facing Austin Homes for Sale Round Rock Homes for Sale Lakeway Homes for Sale Lake Travis Homes for Sale West Lake Hills Homes for Sale Leander Homes for Sale Cedar Park Homes for Sale Pflugerville Homes for Sale Lake Austin Homes for Sale Georgetown Homes for Sale Bee Cave Homes for Sale Dripping Springs Homes for Sale “portals”. Both are analytical data giants largely unknown to the real estate browsing public, and neither USAA nor Corelogic would land “top of mind” if typical consumers were polled on “a good place to get an automatic value estimate for your home”. Would you have thought of either Austin Homes for Sale Round Rock Homes for Sale Lakeway Homes for Sale Lake Travis Homes for Sale West Lake Hills Homes for Sale Leander Homes for Sale Cedar Park Homes for Sale Pflugerville Homes for Sale Lake Austin Homes for Sale Georgetown Homes for Sale Bee Cave Homes for Sale Dripping Springs Homes for Sale?

People don’t care that the Zestimate is wrong. They know it is wrong, but remain interested in knowing what the “wrong” number is. Why is that?

Has there been a shift away from expecting accuracy of information and precision in our social mindset and movement toward acceptance of that which is known to be inaccurate?

I think so. Not just in real estate valuations, but in many areas of life, including news and entertainment, which have blurred. And real estate has blurred as well, with public portals such as Zillow and Trulia offering what I call “real estate entertainment”Austin Homes for Sale Round Rock Homes for Sale Lakeway Homes for Sale Lake Travis Homes for Sale West Lake Hills Homes for Sale Leander Homes for Sale Cedar Park Homes for Sale Pflugerville Homes for Sale Lake Austin Homes for Sale Georgetown Homes for Sale Bee Cave Homes for Sale Dripping Springs Homes for Sale.

These consumer real estate portals exist to sell ads to agents, not to sell homes. You, as a consumer of its content, are tracked and manipulated, your browsing behavior closely studied to keep you engaged as long as possible and, ultimately, to get you to “click”, so you can turn into a “Lead” to be sold to an “Advertiser” (Realtor who pays to receive your lead). In fact, a Sales “Listing” is internally referred to at Zillow as an “Ad Unit”. Austin Homes for Sale Round Rock Homes for Sale Lakeway Homes for Sale Lake Travis Homes for Sale West Lake Hills Homes for Sale Leander Homes for Sale Cedar Park Homes for Sale Pflugerville Homes for Sale Lake Austin Homes for Sale Georgetown Homes for Sale Bee Cave Homes for Sale Dripping Springs Homes for Sale

Ha! So a seller who says “I want my home on Zillow is unknowingly saying “I want my ‘ad unit’ on Zillow”. Zillow doesn’t cause a home to sell a dat faster or for a dollar more. Period. That’s not why it exists. But the Zestimate does serve to bring in a lot of trafficAustin Homes for Sale Round Rock Homes for Sale Lakeway Homes for Sale Lake Travis Homes for Sale West Lake Hills Homes for Sale Leander Homes for Sale Cedar Park Homes for Sale Pflugerville Homes for Sale Lake Austin Homes for Sale Georgetown Homes for Sale Bee Cave Homes for Sale Dripping Springs Homes for Sale.

Consumer real estate search sites are certainly not places to go to find true, correct and accurate information about housing values, yet they dominate search traffic and site visits in the real estate space because people “like” the websites and apps and the way information is presented Austin Homes for Sale Round Rock Homes for Sale Lakeway Homes for Sale Lake Travis Homes for Sale West Lake Hills Homes for Sale Leander Homes for Sale Cedar Park Homes for Sale Pflugerville Homes for Sale Lake Austin Homes for Sale Georgetown Homes for Sale Bee Cave Homes for Sale Dripping Springs Homes for Sale.

This acceptance of manipulation and untruth has bothered me for a number of years. Realtors must abide by a Code of Ethics, consumer real estate portals do not. There are no rules for consumer facing public real estate portals such as Zillow and Trulia. They can do with you as they please, manipulate the data however they want, and there is no accountability structure in place at all. Austin Homes for Sale Round Rock Homes for Sale Lakeway Homes for Sale Lake Travis Homes for Sale West Lake Hills Homes for Sale Leander Homes for Sale Cedar Park Homes for Sale Pflugerville Homes for Sale Lake Austin Homes for Sale Georgetown Homes for Sale Bee Cave Homes for Sale Dripping Springs Homes for Sale

But, Now, I Finally Cry “Uncle”.I give up. I’m joining in. If you can’t beat them, …

Our MLS provider CoreLogic has provided an AVM tools for our clients to track and receive updates on home value, and I’ve surrendered to my accuracy sensibilities and set it up for my clients. I’m not sure Austin Homes for Sale Round Rock Homes for Sale Lakeway Homes for Sale Lake Travis Homes for Sale West Lake Hills Homes for Sale Leander Homes for Sale Cedar Park Homes for Sale Pflugerville Homes for Sale Lake Austin Homes for Sale Georgetown Homes for Sale Bee Cave Homes for Sale Dripping Springs Homes for Sale if I have “snapped to” the reality of this new digital world where truth matters not, or if, quoting the Borg, I’ve been “Assimilated” Austin Homes for Sale Round Rock Homes for Sale Lakeway Homes for Sale Lake Travis Homes for Sale West Lake Hills Homes for Sale Leander Homes for Sale Cedar Park Homes for Sale Pflugerville Homes for Sale Lake Austin Homes for Sale Georgetown Homes for Sale Bee Cave Homes for Sale Dripping Springs Homes for Sale.

But the good thing about ePropertyWatch is that it has an override feature, whereby I can go into the back end and override the estimate with a manual number. So if you receive a valuation that you believe is way off, let me know and I can correct it. Pretty cool, huh? Austin Homes for Sale Round Rock Homes for Sale Lakeway Homes for Sale Lake Travis Homes for Sale West Lake Hills Homes for Sale Leander Homes for Sale Cedar Park Homes for Sale Pflugerville Homes for Sale Lake Austin Homes for Sale Georgetown Homes for Sale Bee Cave Homes for Sale Dripping Springs Homes for Sale

Try it out below or follow this link to enter your property. Then comment on what you think and how accurate (or not) your particular valuation is Austin Homes for Sale Round Rock Homes for Sale Lakeway Homes for Sale Lake Travis Homes for Sale West Lake Hills Homes for Sale Leander Homes for Sale Cedar Park Homes for Sale Pflugerville Homes for Sale Lake Austin Homes for Sale Georgetown Homes for Sale Bee Cave Homes for Sale Dripping Springs Homes for Sale.

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Tuesday, April 23, 2019